Master strategist 'Ace' Smith ponders next move

Now that Averrell “Ace” Smith, the veteran California political consultant, appears to be finished with his work in this year’s presidential race, a big question is on the minds of the Golden State’s political observers: Where will Ace land?

With California’s 2010 gubernatorial candidates set to begin the preliminary stages of their candidacies as soon as this coming fall, Smith has at least two options.

He managed Antonio Villaraigosa’s 2005 campaign for Los Angeles mayor and Jerry Brown’s run for Attorney General in 2006. With both Villaraigosa and Brown seen as likely contenders for the governor’s seat, Smith may have to choose between them.

Publicly, aides to Villaraigosa and Brown say they are not thinking about the governor’s race.

“The mayor is focused on his reelection in 2009. He is not focused on 2010,” said Sean Clegg, a spokesman for Villaraigosa.

Brown spokesman Gareth Lacy declined to comment on the governor’s race, saying Brown was not thinking that far down the road.

Reached by PolitickerCA.com late last week, days after wrapping up his work overseeing Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in California, Texas, and North Carolina, Smith said he wasn’t thinking about it either.

“I’ve given it zero thought. Not a one,” he said. “I’m just trying to catch up on sleep.”

But the jockeying for Smith, an opposition researcher by trade who first jumped to the managerial end in real estate developer Steve Soboroff’s 2001 campaign for Los Angeles mayor, is expected to be intense.

“Ace is a phenomenal talent. I think he is going to be hugely sought after,” said Clegg, who has worked with Smith in the past.

That is because Smith, 49, is one of the few operatives who Democrats and Republicans alike say could make a substantial difference for a candidate.

“Ace Smith is worth five points in a Democratic primary all by himself,” said Dan Schnur, a California-based political consultant who served as communications director on John McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign. “Ace knows the state as well as any operative of either party.”

If anything, Smith’s work in the presidential race – he helped Clinton to a make-or-break victory in California, aggressively pursuing a heavy early vote strategy – has upped his stock value for a governor’s race that is almost sure to be expensive and hard fought.

“Running a gubernatorial campaign here is complex. It’s like a presidential campaign,” said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic consultant who was a strategist on Phil Angelides failed 2006 bid to unseat Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Garry South, who guided former Democratic Governor Gray Davis to victories in 1998 and 2002, said, “Somebody who comes in with presidential experience, that’s the first thing statewide candidates look for.”

If either Villaraigosa or Brown decides not to run, Smith’s decision could in the end be very simple. It has not gone unnoticed that Villaraigosa faces a potential impediment to a 2010 statewide run: he has to run for reelection in 2009.

Clegg, Villariagosa’s spokesman, said he thought it was likely Smith would serve on the re-elect effort.