Brown still seen as likely Democratic nominee for governor

California Attorney General Jerry Brown: Getty Images PhotoCalifornia Attorney General and former governor Jerry Brown is still the prohibitive favorite for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2010, according to a new analysis by a political insider.

In a posting this week on the California Majority Report, longtime Democratic operative Steve Maviglio continued to list Brown in the top spot in his rankings of Democratic would-be governors, based on name recognition and measured steps Brown has taken to build support.

"But there's also a growing sense among the new generation of Democrats that Brown might be yesterday's news," Maviglio wrote. "Keep your eye on turnout among young voters in the November elections; if there's a surge, Brown will have a contest on his hands."

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom remains second in Maviglio's rankings, on the basis of his enhanced profile as the leader on the gay marriage issue in California. Following Newsom are Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former state Controller Steve Westly.

The only real change since Maviglio's last rankings earlier this spring is move up for Superintendent of Public Education Jack O'Connell, who goes from 7 to 6 in the new rankings because of higher visibility from gaming compact tribe advertisements. Treasurer Bill Lockyer dropped to 7 from 6.

Two previously unranked politicians, U.S. Reps. Loretta Sanchez and Jackie Speier, entered at 11 and 12, respectively.

Maviglio, currently a spokesman for Assembly Speaker Emeritus Fabian Nunez and formerly the spokesman for then-Gov. Gray Davis, also mentioned the top Republicans expected to vie for California's top post.

Two women and former top business executives, Carly Fiorina of Hewlett-Packard and Meg Whitman of eBay, are considered possible GOP gubernatorial rivals to Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, according to Maviglio.

Both Fiorina and Whitman have California-based roles with U.S. Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign.

"The ultra-conservative wing of the GOP doesn't appear to have a horse in the race yet either, but that's only a matter of time," Maviglio wrote.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, is barred from running for another term.

Maviglio's full rankings and commentary can be found here.