Republicans maintain double-digit lead among registered voters in CA-50

Voter registration in the 50th Congressional District has been trending Democratic in recent years, providing some encouraging news for San Diego Democrats as Nick Leibham (D-Rancho Santa Fe) looks to unseat U.S. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad).

While Republicans maintain a sizable advantage in terms of registered voters, the gap has tightened since Oct. 2006, when they enjoyed a 14 percent cushion. By the end of last month, the difference between registered Democrats and Republicans had decreased to just under 11 percent (see details below).

"We've seen a national trend away from the Republican party as it lost its way, particularly the Republicans in congress in 2006," acknowledged Barrett Tetlow, political director of the San Diego Republican Party. "We learned a lesson in '06, and I think it's reversing."

Tetlow maintains that the 50th district is a safe seat, and Gary Jacobson, a professor of political science at the University of California-San Diego and an expert on congressional elections, concurs. "That's still a huge advantage, though the trend is certainly favorable to the Democrats," Jacobson said.

Despite the disadvantages, Jess Durfee, chair of the San Diego Democratic Party, sees an opportunity for an upset. "This is a district that's on the coast, with Republicans who tend to be pro-environment and progressive on education," Durfee said. "Nick Leibham is the type of candidate who can win a district like that."

Leibham has presented himself as a centrist Democrat with an intimate knowledge of local issues.

His campaign has tried a number of tactics to gain attention, including releasing an ad that compared Bilbray to Paris Hilton. Bilbray has attempted to stay above the fray and has refused to engage Leibham in debate.

San Diego Democrats are encouraged by Leibham's fundraising strength, and the DCCC has labeled the contest as one of the country's "Emerging Races" in their Red to Blue program. Still, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats by a 3:2 margin in the 50th, Leibham has his work cut out for him.

"If Democrats were to win this one, it would be unprecedented," said Jacobson. "Doesn't mean they can't do it. But I wouldn't bet that the world's going to change."

Registered Voters in the 50th Congressional District (Oct. 2006)
      ·  Republicans: 158,349 (43.64%)
      ·  Democrats: 107,473 (29.62%)
      ·  Decline-to-state: 81,273 (22.4%)
      ·  Total Registered Voters: 362,826

Registered Voters in the 50th Congressional District (Aug. 2008)
      ·  Republicans: 153,560 (41.77%)
      ·  Democrats: 113,625 (30,91%)
      ·  Decline-to-state: 85,313 (23.21%)
      ·  Total Registered Voters: 367,567