Conservative national columnists give edge to McNerney over Andal in CA-11 race

Two of the nation's most conservative political analysts signaled this week that they think Congressman Jerry McNerney will likely be reelected to office this fall in California Congressional District 11.

McNerney, a freshman-term Pleasanton Democrat, is facing GOP challenger and former state lawmaker Dean Andal of Stockton.

The piece, by Bob Novak and Tim Carney which appeared in the Evans-Novak Political Report on Human Events said that largely due to McNerney far outpacing Andal in fundraising, the incumbent Democrat should win reelection.

Here's their full analysis:

"California-11: One of the biggest Democratic coups of 2006 was unseating conservative property-rights champion Rep. Richard Pombo (R) by tying him to the Jack Abramoff corruption scandals. The scourge of liberal, pro-government environmentalists, Pombo fell under the weight of massive independent expenditures. This makes Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) a top target for the GOP this year.

This valley district east of the Bay tilts Republican, but not overwhelmingly-Bush garnered 53% and 54% in 2000 and 2004. To compensate for the tilt of his district, McNerney has roped some local GOP politicians into his campaign. He also has a heavy fundraising advantage, thanks to his being one of very few vulnerable Democratic incumbents this year. McNerney now sits on a two-to-one cash-on-hand edge over former state bureaucrat and former state Assemblyman Dean Andal (R).

McNerney realizes he needs to work hard to win this seat, but he has the edge early on. Leaning Democratic Retention."