Ashley Swearengin

A poll conducted by Survey USA shows that the Fresno mayoral runoff election between Fresno State Director of Community and Economic Development Ashley Swearengin and City Councilman Henry Perea is statistically tied. Swearengin leads Perea by 48 to 45 percent. Survey USA writes that the "ratio of white voters to Hispanic voters on Election Day will determine who wins the election":

On the surface, the contest is static, but underneath, there is offsetting movement. Swearengin has gained ground among men, lost ground among women. Perea has gained ground among older voters, lost ground among younger voters. Perea has gained ground among voters focused on economic development and crime, but has lost ground among voters focused on gangs.

Among white voters, Swearengin leads by 26 points; among Hispanics, Perea leads by 42; both numbers are largely unchanged from those six weeks ago. The ratio of white voters to Hispanic voters on Election Day will determine who wins the election. In today’s SurveyUSA poll results, 59% of voters are white, 25% of voters are Hispanic. Swearengin gets 73% of Republican voters; Perea gets 64% of Democratic voters; Independents are split.

In the race for Mayor of Fresno, City Councilman Henry Perea had a five point lead over Ashley Swearengin in a new SurveyUSA/Action News poll.  Perea leads 30%-25%, with Tom Boyajian in third place with 11%.  Two months ago, Perea’s lead was 16 percentage points.

Democrats view the Fresno mayoral race as a major opportunity to move a young rising star into an important and visible post in California’s six largest city (population 581,036), which has had a Republican Mayor for the last sixteen years.  City Councilman Henry T. Perea, the 30-year-old son of a Fresno County Supervisor, is viewed as the leading candidate in the non-partisan contest; he led Ashley Swearengin, an economic development official, 31%-15% in an independent poll earlier this month, and has raised over $200,000 – the most money of any of the ten candidates.   Two-term incumbent Alan Autry is term-limited; his predecessor, Jim Patterson, ran for Congress in 2002 and finished second in the GOP primary behind Devin Nunes.