Schwarzenegger vs. Boxer?

Every six years, Republicans begin to display some confidence in their ability to beat Barbara Boxer in a race for the United States Senate. They only came close once, back in 1992 when Boxer was running statewide for the first time; she defeated conservative commentator Bruce Herschensohn by 48%-43% margin. The GOP had high hopes in 1998 when they ran State Treasurer Matt Fong, but he lost 53%-43%. They were less optimistic in 2004 despite the candidacy of Bill Jones, who had won two statewide elections as Secretary of State; Boxer won that race 58%-39%.

Now as Boxer prepares to seek re-election to a fourth term in 2010, the GOP is again touting their chances to elect a Republican to the U.S. Senate for the first time since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988. Their 800-pound gorilla is Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has done nothing to dissuade speculation that he’d like to be a U.S. Senator. Boxer vs. Schwarzenegger could be one of the best U.S. Senate races of all-time.

But even if Schwarzenegger doesn’t run, the Republicans actually have a few candidates who could potentially beat Boxer. The problem for the GOP is that those candidates might rather run for Governor: Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Is there a chance that the next National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman might actually be able to recruit a tier 1 candidate?